Erdoğan opposition not enough to score victory in presidential election - survey

Around 25 percent of Turkey’s oppositions voters say they will not cast a ballot in favour of the opposition presidential candidate if the hopeful is not to their liking, according a survey by leading pollster Metropoll.

This figure jumped to around 75 percent among the country’s undecided voters, signalling that mere opposition to Erdoğan will not be adequate to win the presidential election slated for the summer of 2023, the “Turkey’s Pulse – July 2022,” survey conducted on 2,091 participants in 28 provinces across the country between July 11-16, found.

Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leads an opposition alliance comprising six parties with a shared platform focused on abolishing a presidential system of government in Turkey that granted vast executive powers to Erdoğan in 2018. 

Last year, the parties began the talks last year after opinion polls showed that Erdoğan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) were suffering a decline in public support ahead of the next polls. The alliance has yet to formally announce its presidential candidate, but CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has signalled his candidacy.

Erdoğan would lag behind five other possible opposition candidates in the second round of Turkey’s presidential election, the Metropoll survey, shared by chairman Özer Sencar on Twitter, found.

Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu; CHP İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, CHP Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş; Good Party (IP) leader Meral Akşener; and Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) leader Ali Babacan would all defeat Erdoğan in the second round of the presidential election as possible candidates, according to Metropoll.

If Erdoğan and CHP’s Kılıçdaroğlu were to face off in the second round of a presidential polls, Kılıçdaroğlu would receive 45.4 percent of the vote and Erdoğan 42.7 percent, Metropoll found.

If Istanbul mayor Imamoğlu were to run for president against Erdoğan, the popular CHP politician would defeat Erdoğan by a more than 6-point margin, receiving 48.6 percent of the vote compared to Erdoğan’s 42.3 percent, the survey found

Erdoğan, who was elected president in 2014 and re-elected in 2018, with vastly enhanced executive powers following a nationwide referendum marred by opposition allegations of vote-rigging. The Turkish president has called the next elections “a fork in the road” for the country and the nation. He is faced with an economic crisis and trailing to several prominent opposition figures in multiple opinion polls.

Turkey’s presidential system come under criticism for eliminating the prime minister's post while transferring executive powers to the president, who rules with only limited checks and balances.

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